(If the graph is looking a little off-kilter, you can view it here.)
Every year, travel companies have the important job of renewing their Air Travel Organiser’s Licence (ATOL). As part of this process, the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) asks them to forecast how many passengers they expect to carry in the year ahead. This data gives us a glimpse into the travel industry’s mood and plans for the future.
September is the busiest of the two renewal periods, with around two-thirds of ATOL holders and 16 of the top 20 companies submitting their projections. We’ve been diving into the newly released ATOL authorisation data from the September 2024 renewal round, and in this post, we share five of our key findings:
1 – Total authorised passengers continue to set new records
Whilst the overall number of ATOL holders remained relatively flat compared to October 2023 (1,582 vs 1584), the total number of authorised ATOL passengers set another new record, increasing 5% year on year to 33.3m.
It’s worth highlighting that, as anticipated in our April ‘24 analysis, Booking.com actually reduced its ATOL authorisation by 1.1 million passengers following the introduction of a specific sales exemption. Adjusting for this means year-on-year growth is closer to 10%. In fact, given the scale of this single movement, we’ve stripped out Booking.com in some of our further analysis below.
2 – easyJet Holidays adds 0.8m passengers and Jet2holidays’ licence now surpasses 7.0m passengers
easyJet Holidays increased their authorisation by 0.8 million passengers or 34% and moved up to 4th largest ATOL holder in the process. At the same time, Jet2holidays’ increase of 5% takes them above 7.0 million authorised passengers. That’s 80% higher than their authorisation in 2019 and 1.0 million more than 2nd placed TUI.
3 – A widening expectation gap between large and small operators
Larger ATOL holders appear very optimistic for the year ahead. Our quarter-on-quarter analysis of those top 20 ATOL holders who renewed this September reveals they’re projecting passenger growth of between 6-11% over the next four quarters.
But smaller ATOL holders appear much less confident about the outlook. Those outside the top 20 anticipate a small decline in departures of 2-3% for this coming winter and are projecting declining passengers of 6-8% for Summer 2025 departures.
4 – The ATOL market consolidated even further
Continuing the trend of the past few renewals, the Top 10 ATOL holding groups continue to grow their share and now constitute 80% of the total market. Consider that in October 2019, the last renewal before Covid, the top 10 represented just 65%. Jet2holidays’ licence alone now represents 21% of the total ATOL market.
5 – More ATOL holders are moving to franchises
Over recent years, we’ve seen a steady fall in the number of Small Business ATOL holders (SBAs: a simplified type of licence with a limit of 500 passengers per year). However, this has been offset by an increase in the number of companies obtaining their ATOL via a 3rd party franchise (now 24% of ATOL holders).
We believe this shift reflects the mounting costs and challenges facing small businesses and the appeal of the franchise schemes, which offer bundled services, support, and buying power.
*defined as total ATOL holders after stripping out nil licences and transport company licences
The September 2024 ATOL data shows record passenger authorisations, with large travel operators like Jet2holidays and easyJet Holidays projecting growth, while smaller companies expect declines. The market is consolidating around top players, and more small businesses are turning to franchise-based ATOL licences for added support amid rising costs.
If you would like to discuss any of the insights above, please get in touch.
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