Movement in the top 20 ATOL holders over the past 12 years (click on a year to interact with the graph)
When travel companies renew their Air Travel Organiser’s Licence (ATOL), they’re required to forecast how many passengers they expect to carry over the next 12 months. That figure, known as their authorised passenger total, acts as a barometer of confidence and outlook across the sector.
Since the March 2025 renewal, we’ve been digging into the latest data set, and it paints a revealing picture of how operators are positioning themselves for the year ahead. From record-breaking totals to growing consolidation, this round of renewals offers more than a few noteworthy shifts.
Here are four key insights we think you’ll find particularly interesting.
1 – ATOL capacity hits all-time high, but growth is slowing
The number of ATOL-protected passengers reached a new record in April 2025, rising to 34.2 million. This represents the highest capacity of ATOL-protected travel ever on sale, setting the stage for what could be a record-breaking Summer 2025.
While this continued upward trajectory is a positive indicator for the sector, the pace of growth is beginning to ease. Passenger authorisations have increased by just 3% since April 2024 (from 33.2 million). This marks a noticeable deceleration in growth compared to the eye-watering double-digit growth of post-pandemic rebound.
2 – Loveholidays drives March growth, while most ATOL holders scale back
The March 2025 renewal saw a net increase of 900,000 ATOL-protected passenger places – but remarkably, loveholidays alone accounted for nearly all of it. The online travel agent added 997,000 passengers to its licence, a 25% increase, taking its total authorised capacity to just over 5 million. This substantial expansion underlines loveholidays’ confidence heading into peak season.
On the Beach also boosted its licence, adding 211,000 passengers, a 10% uplift on its previous capacity. However, these two players stand in stark contrast to the broader trend.
Taking both loveholidays and On the Beach out of the equation – along with those ATOL holders yet to complete their March renewal – the picture turns more cautious. Across the rest of the March-renewing group, total licence limits have dropped by 7% compared to the same point last year. This suggests a far more conservative outlook among many operators, possibly reflecting ongoing challenges such as rising costs, consumer uncertainty, or operational pressures.
3 – Quarterly trends highlight diverging strategies
A closer look at the quarter-on-quarter licence data reveals that loveholidays is expanding consistently across all four upcoming quarters. This signals a clear intent to grow year-round and across multiple markets, rather than focusing solely on their traditional peak summer season. The most significant uplift is in the April-June 2025 quarter, likely influenced by the shift in the Easter holiday from March departures (in 2024) to April (in 2025), which may be prompting operators to position more capacity in Q2.
On the Beach, by contrast, has concentrated its growth in the October-December 2025 quarter. This appears aligned with its strategic move into city breaks, a product segment that naturally leans toward off-peak travel and shorter-duration trips. The timing reflects a calculated effort to diversify beyond the traditional summer sun model.
For other March-renewing ATOL holders, licence limits have decreased across all quarters, with the steepest drop seen in the October-December 2025 period. One possible reason for this may be that several small and mid-sized operators have only renewed their licences for six months, rather than the full year.
4 – Market consolidation deepens: top 3 now hold over half of all ATOL capacity
The latest renewal continued the five-year trend towards increasing market consolidation, as ATOL sales become concentrated into the hands of fewer, larger players.
The Top 10 ATOL-holding groups now account for a commanding 82% share of the total authorised capacity. To put this context, back in October 2019 (the last ATOL renewal before the pandemic) their share was just 65%.
This shift is even more pronounced at the very top of the market. Following Loveholidays’ latest increase, the top three ATOL holders now represent more than half of the entire ATOL market.
TTC Director of Strategy Consulting, Sarah Winship, said, “These new ATOL renewal figures offer a clear snapshot of how the UK travel industry is evolving. After years of post-pandemic recovery, the sector is now shifting into a more strategic and competitive phase. Growth hasn’t stopped, but it’s definitely slowing. While the biggest players are expanding confidently, many others are treading more cautiously or consolidating their positions.
What stands out most is the continued concentration of market share, with the top three operators now accounting for over half of all ATOL-protected passengers. That shift has implications not just for market dynamics but also for consumers and suppliers who may increasingly rely on a smaller pool of dominant brands.
As Summer 2025 approaches, these figures suggest a sector that is optimistic but selective, betting big where confidence is high and hedging in areas of uncertainty. We’ll be keeping a close eye on how this plays out in practice – and what it might mean for future renewals.”
If you would like to discuss any of the insights above, please get in touch.
*ATOL holders defined as total ATOL holders after stripping out nil licences and transport company licences.
**Top 10 ATOL holding groups include Marella Cruises ATOL and Classic Collection ATOL
If you liked this article, we think you’ll love these:
Join our newsletter
If you enjoyed this post, why not sign up to our newsletter? Get our latest blog posts, industry updates and exclusive content.
Sign up
