When companies apply to renew their Air Travel Organiser’s Licence (ATOL), they have to forecast the number of passengers they think they’ll be flying around in the next 12 months. This authorisation data is a pretty good gauge of how hopeful these travel companies are feeling about the year ahead.
Since the March 2024 renewal, we’ve been busy digging into the latest data, and we’ve uncovered some fascinating trends.
Here are seven insights we thought you’d find interesting.
1 – Total ATOL-protected passengers hit an all-time high
The total number of authorised ATOL passengers rose to 33.2m following the March 2024 renewal. That’s a new high watermark, signalling we’re heading into Summer 2024 with the largest capacity of ATOL-protected trips ever on sale. Total authorisations were up 5% compared to the position on 1 October 2023 (31.6m) and a massive +16% on 1 April 2023 (28.7m). But…
2 – …of the 1.6m additional packages added at the March renewal, 1.4m were added by one ATOL holder.
Hot on the heels of securing flight capacity by signing a ground-breaking commercial arrangement with Ryanair, Love Holidays increased its ATOL authorisation by more than 50% to 4.0m passengers. The increased authorisation cements its position as the third largest ATOL holder, closing the gap on second-placed TUI Group (6.1m passengers including Marella cruises). Jet2holidays remains out in front as the largest ATOL holder with an unchanged authorisation for 6.7m seats.
3 – Booking.com remains the 4th largest ATOL holder for now
Though we understand its ATOL is largely covering scheduled flight-only sales. Following publication of a specific ATOL exemption in the Official Record last month we expect its authorisation will fall considerably at the September 2024 renewal.
Did you know we’re running a comprehensive ATOL workshop on Tuesday 18 June? Places are selling fast.
Sign up now4 – The ATOL market consolidated even further
The Top 10 ATOL holding groups now constitute 80% of the total market, compared to 74% in March 2023. Consider that in October 2019, the last renewal before Covid, the top 10 represented just 65%.
5 – The number of ATOL holders is back in growth
There are now 1,612 active ATOL holders* compared to 1,584 at the start of October 2023. There were 65 new ATOLs granted between October 2023 and March 2024 (of which 37 joined as members of an ATOL franchise scheme). 37 ATOL holders dropped out of the scheme during the quarter.
6 – Larger ATOL holders are positive about Summer 2024
Quarter-on-quarter analysis of the largest March renewers suggests they’re very optimistic about Summer 2024 departures. After a strong peak January and February booking period, they are more cautious about March.
7 – Smaller ATOL holders remain more cautious
The data continues to highlight differing outlooks between the large and small ATOL holders, while the top five March renewers increased their ATOLs by an average of 37%, the rest of the market increased by a more cautious 4%.
If you would like to discuss any of the insights above, please get in touch.
*defined as total ATOL holders after stripping out nil licences and transport company licences.
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