Unlocking insights: exploring the latest trends in ATOL authorisation data

Every year, travel companies undergo the crucial process of renewing their Air Travel Organiser’s Licence (ATOL). As part of this renewal, the CAA requires them to make projections about the number of passengers they anticipate carrying over the next 12 months. This data isn’t just about regulatory compliance; it’s a valuable window into the travel industry’s optimism and intentions for the upcoming year.

Following the September 2023 renewal round, we’ve delved deep into the freshly released ATOL authorisation data, and the results are nothing short of fascinating. In this post, we share our key takeaways and insights from our extensive analysis of the data.

1 – Total authorised passengers have reached an all-time high

As of 1 October 2023, the total number of authorised passengers was 31.6m, the highest it’s been in the history of the ATOL scheme. Total authorisations were up 10% on the March 2023 renewal and a massive +20% on October 2022.

2 – The total number of active* ATOL holders remained broadly steady

There are now 1,584 compared to 1,588 in March 2023. The churn rate is much lower than we’ve seen in previous years. 35 new licences were granted in the six months to 30 September 2023, broadly replacing the 39 that dropped out of the scheme during the same period.

3 – The market continues to consolidate rapidly

The Top 10 ATOL holding groups are now 79% of the total market, compared to 74% in March 2023. Consider that in October 2019, the last renewal before Covid, the top 10 represented just 65%.

4 – The most year-on-year growth came from five operators

While the market as a whole grew by 20%, our ATOL authorisation bridge shows most of the year-on-year growth came from just five massive operators. Jet2holidays, easyJet Holidays, Booking.com and TUI added capacity when they renewed their ATOLs in September 2023. In addition, loveholidays (a March renewer) varied its authorisation substantially.

5 – Outside the top 20, it was a very different story

On average, ATOL authorisations declined by 6%. One feature of the Covid recovery has been the contrasting fortunes of large and small operators. While large ATOL holders have generally been able to access funding to accelerate their regrowth, smaller ATOL holders have found funding harder to come by, constraining their ability to spend on marketing and recruitment.

6 – There is a significant deviation between large and small operators

ATOL holders apply for quarterly licence limits, which gives us clues about their expectations for the seasons ahead. Our analysis of the companies that renewed in September 2023 shows a significant deviation between large and small operators. The top 20 ATOL holder’s growth expectations are spread more or less evenly over the next four quarters ending December 2023 (Q4’23), March 2024 (Q1’24), June 2024 (Q2’24) and September 2024 (Q3’24).

However, while ATOL holders outside of the top 20 forecast growth in calendar quarters Q4’23 and Q1’24, they appear much less optimistic about Summer 2024, with quarterly authorisations for Q2’24 and Q3’24 both marginally lower than 2023.

*defined as total ATOL holders after stripping out nil licences and transport company licences.

If you would like to discuss any of the insights above, please get in touch.

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